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Market Outlook

Manufacturing PMI Signals Weakness: What It Means for the Economy and Markets

The weaker manufacturing sector is a much smaller part of the economy than services. Manufacturing PMI seems to suggest that economic growth and inflation are not as strong as feared – especially if payroll declines are true to this estimate at least. This is not a major surprise, but the weakness in the service index shows that services is seeing a spillover. This should be watched carefully.

The markets have reacted positively, following yesterday’s bounce back – up ¾ to 1%. (Bad news is good news!)

Tesla reports today, likely to be bad but may be discounted.

Meta reports tomorrow after the market, I’ll put up the preview numbers.

Microsoft and Google report on Thursday.

To round off the week we have the PCE number on Friday, which should give us a better idea of inflation – that is the Fed’s preferred gauge.

Categories
Stocks

April PMI Manufacturing Index Falls Below 50: Signs of Economic Contraction

U.S. PMI Manufacturing unexpectedly slips into negative territory in April

April PMI Manufacturing Index: 49.9 vs. 52.0 consensus and 51.9 in March. The services PMI did, too, slip to 50.9 (vs. 52.0 expected) from 51.7 a month ago, though it remained in positive territory, with the index still above 50.

The composite PMI (flash estimate) came in at 50.9, down from 52.1 in the previous month, signaling business activity in the U.S. expanded at a slower pace during the month, in the wake of signs of weaker demand.

The group’s measure of employment slid 3.2 points to 48, reflecting shrinking services payrolls and slower growth at manufacturers. The composite index of prices received, meanwhile, pulled back from a 10-month high.

“The more challenging business environment prompted companies to cut payroll numbers at a rate not seen since the global financial crisis if the early pandemic lockdown months are excluded,” Williamson said.

The decline in the employment measure suggests companies see current capacity as sufficient to handle demand. Order backlogs remained in contraction territory during the month.

New business at service providers shrank for the first time since October, with some firms indicating higher borrowing costs and still-elevated prices were limiting demand.

The overall index for services activity decreased to the lowest level in five months, while the manufacturing PMI showed a slight contraction.

“Further pace may be lost in the coming months, as April saw inflows of new business fall for the first time in six months and firms’ future output expectations slipped to a five-month low amid heightened concern about the outlook,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.