Bumble (BMBL) earnings call, Q4-2023
The Bad
The US online dating market is likely approaching maturity with a lot of headwinds. Also their younger cohort does not have much spending capability – there has to be a ceiling there.
Product execution was not smooth – too many tiers, friction due to confusion, and not enough differentiation between tiers. The relaunch should take a couple of quarters.
The Good
Focus on profitability, expecting up to 300 basis point operating margin improvement in 2024.
Product relaunch is under way under a seasoned product leader, with a focus on simplification and value differentiation.
The stock should remain sideways for a while.
I had recommended buying Bumble (BMBL) at $13 as a 3-5 year long-term investment, targeting 13-15% annual gains.
This was an investment where I lost quite a bit, I bought at $22, and sold 75% at $16.
What went wrong? I overestimated growth prospects of 23-24% revenue growth in 2023-2025, instead, growth slowed down to 17-19%, and the final nail was in Q3, when Bumble forecasted low teens growth for 2024, amidst an overall slowdown in online dating – still a lot higher than Match’s forecast of 7-8% growth, but no longer the growth story.
Why buy now? – The stock is not too far from it’s all-time low of $12.29, post disappointing Q3 results and guidance. With a market cap of just $2.4Bn or 1.5X 2024 sales of $1.2Bn its a decent GARP (Growth At a Reasonable Price). Revenue should grow at 12-14% in the next 3-5 years, mostly abroad. I think the worst is priced in the stock and we’re getting a subscription based, sticky business (the flagship Bumble app is a ladies first, unique model, with about 2.8Mn paying users paying over $25 per month). GAAP profitability is still a few years away, though but margins are improving 100-150 basis points each year.
Founder Whitney Herd, resigned in Nov as CEO and moved to Chair, appointing former Slack CEO – Lidaine Jones as CEO, who has already expanded the team with key appointees since she started a month ago. There was some consternation about the founder relinquishing charge, but Jones should fill in her shoes well, I suspect execution is likely to get better given her tech/product background.
Bumble reports after the market today, there might be some volatility, it’s a small cap after all.
Buying some during the day, and then will take another call after earnings.