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Economic Update: April Core PCE Price Index and Personal Income

April Core PCE Price Index: In line with estimates.

  •  +0.2% M/M vs. +0.2% consensus and +0.3% in March. +2.8% Y/Y vs. +2.8% consensus and +2.8% prior.
  • PCE Price Index: +0.3% M/M vs. +0.3% expected and +0.3% prior. +2.7% Y/Y vs. +2.7% consensus and +2.7% in March.
  • Personal outlays: +0.2% M/M vs. +0.3% consensus and +0.8% prior.
  • Personal income: +0.3% M/M vs. +0.3% consensus and +0.5%.

Futures are up slightly by 0.3% and Treasury yields are lower at 4.53%

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Market Outlook

March Core PCE Price Index Matches Expectations, While Personal Income and Outlays Show Steady Growth

March Core PCE Price Index:

+0.3% M/M vs. +0.3% consensus and +0.3% prior.

+2.8% Y/Y vs. +2.7% consensus and +2.8% prior.

PCE Price Index: +0.3% M/M vs. +0.3% expected and +0.3% prior.

+2.7% Y/Y vs. +2.6% expected and +2.5% prior.

Personal income: +0.5% M/M vs. +0.5% expected and +0.3% prior.

Personal outlays: +0.8% M/M vs. +0.6% consensus and +0.8% prior.

The 10-year is down slightly to 4.67%

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Market Outlook

Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge Eases in February, Matching Expectations

Fed’s preferred inflation gauge subsides, in line with consensus, in February

Core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% M/M in February vs. +0.3% consensus and 0.5% prior (revised from +0.4%).

On a year-over-year basis, core PCE increased 2.8% Y/Y, compared with the +2.8% consensus and +2.9% prior (revised from 2.8%).

Including food and energy prices, the PCE Price Index grew 0.3% M/M, less than the +0.4% expected and slowing from +0.4% in January (revised from +0.3%).

Prices for goods rose by 0.5%, bolstered by energy prices, and prices for services rose 0.3%. Food prices edged up 0.1%, while energy prices jumped 2.3% during the month.

2.5% Y/Y vs. +2.5% expected and +2.4% prior.

Personal income increased less than expected, up 0.3% M/M vs. +0.4% expected and +1.0% prior, the U.S. Commerce Department said on Friday.

Personal outlays climbed 0.8% M/M, exceeding the +0.5% expected and accelerating from +0.2% in January.

Real disposable income, which is adjusted for inflation, declined 0.1% M/M in February, while real personal consumption expenditures increased 0.4%.