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Cybersecurity Semiconductors

Strategic 2024 Investment Opportunities in Cybersecurity, Technology, and Semiconductors

Here are ETFs that mirror the growing Semiconductor, Cybersecurity and Technology sectors, they have 4 to 5 Star ratings from Morningstar and have done exceedingly well this past year – over 40%. Which is a great performance but a drag going forward, because we’re entering at fairly high levels and very little chance of those gains. Nonetheless these have performed in the mid to high teens per year over a five year period and some have over a ten year – basically the underlying stocks are strong so in the long run, as we can see from their consistent performance.

Most Important: Spread your buying out in installments, on declines, anything we’re buying in 2024 is priced above their mean so we want as much of a bargain as possible.

Cybersecurity

CIBR – cybersecurity, mostly large cybersecurity companies, has the biggest names like PANW, CRWD, OKTA, FTNT etc, a good proxy for cyber security, 

HACK – also cybersecurity, some small companies, but it has companies that specialize in military grade products, which is a bit of an advantage.

Technology

VGT – VGT is part of the Vanguard family, very well regarded and has all the biggest names in tech, half of the M-7, several cybersecurity companies, huge returns –  even the 10 year return is like 18%, going forward if big tech performs this fund do very well. But given how well it’s done again don’t expect too much, anything in the 10-12% range per year for the next 5 should be good.

Semiconductor

SOXX – Largest semiconductor ETF also very successful, having Nvidia as a large holding will do that, but there are several semiconductor companies that haven’t done as well, which can be a drag. But that is common for a sector or any mutual fund or ETF, there will be mediocre and weaker companies, but they also tend to be less volatile, it’s not all bad.

Palo Alto Networks (PANW) Update: $268 – HOLD Amid Revenue Guidance Cut

Palo had a horrible drop of about 30%, or $100 from yesterday’s close of $365 to about $265 today, most of the damage happening after hours after weak revenue guidance. Markets punishing the stock for 15-16% growth forecasted instead of the earlier guidance of 19%.

Sales forecast for the year ending July 2024, is now expected to grow only 16%  between $7.95B and $8B, down from a prior view of $8.15B to $8.2B.  Also Street estimates FYJuly 2025 are about 9.22Bn, implying a revenue growth of just 15% – another slow year. 

How did this happen – Billings growth faltered dropping some $0.8Bn as Palo couldn’t a) close on Federal contracts b) extended discounts by allowing 3-6 months free usage before billing commenced. 

A drop of 3% annualized revenue growth with a sales multiple in excess of 18x is a tough pill to swallow for a company that is still not GAAP profitable – analysts downgrades followed this morning as expected.

What’s next after the finger-pointing – analysts not diligent enough with primary research, checking with customers management not nimble enough to manage expectations, or both?

CEO Nikesh Arora was right, in my opinion of discounted selling and free usage to sign new contracts, it’s a delay and a small price to pay upfront than to lose contracts – share price be damned, share prices usually come back.

On 2/13 I recommended selling Palo as profit-taking and subsequently sold 15% of my holding at $365. But after this, it becomes a “Show Me” story and I’ll wait.