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The Apple AI event (AAPL) $195

Apple started its Developers Conference with its long awaited, long overdue AI development announcements yesterday. 

These were the key points

Emphasis on privacy – Majority usage of AI on device but cloud available as well for more computing power, they would be using their own cloud service instead of Google or Microsoft. Apple will be hosting its own Cloud AI services on its own Apple Silicon servers to counter Microsoft’s cloud AI.

Strategy was integration and not an add on – To show AI integrated into the apps and products you already use—rather than powering a tacked-on perk or stand-alone chatbot. 

Partnering with Sam Altman’s OpenAI – Not developing their own artificial intelligence from scratch, instead partnering with Sam Altman’s AI, but crucially it will be integrated. Using a third party for AI could be a smarter move (cheaper, less Capex, fewer failures) – or simply they were too far behind.

Integration Apple’s strongest differentiation was and remains integrated hardware and software product, “System on chip” – basically Apple created and designed silicon with its own operating system and hardware, it’ll be interesting to see how well it is integrated.

The adoption is companywide and includes iOS 18, iPadOS 18 and MacOS Sequoia, Siri, 

Some new features, and a lot of catching up – – several features are in Google and Samsung. 

Playing Catch Up – Writing tools, Voice transcription, Image generation and Notifications, these all exist, and are now available from Apple Intelligence.

Differentiators

The key differentiator here is that Apple Intelligence will also make it easier to search through our existing data – for example, What’s exciting here is the blending of AI with the photos we’ve already taken, and prioritize our notifications. Like other chatbots, you can now text with Siri. But unlike other chatbots, Siri has access to all your Apple stuff. When all the promised updates arrive, it will be able to see what’s on your screen and work across apps. “Add this address to his contact card.” “Text yesterday’s picnic photos to my mom.” Things like this make total sense to a human but up until now have been out of Siri’s reach. The thing that really elevates Siri is its new friend, ChatGPT. When you ask Siri to do some things it doesn’t know how to—say, come up with dinner ideas based on your recent grocery haul—it asks your permission to check with an integrated version of OpenAI’s bot. However, If Apple can pull off what it showed and convince people that Siri is no longer painfully stupid, it might be a tech miracle. That’s a big if. The company has a decade long history of underwhelming Siri improvements.

If you get a chance watch Joanna Stern’s video in the Wall Street Journal.

https://www.wsj.com/tech/personal-tech/apple-intelligence-ios-18-macos-sequoia-ai-b08bb299?mod=hp_lead_pos7

Apple AI analysis: Impact on the company’s business and stock.

Much needed, frankly regardless of much this helps Apple, if they hadn’t done this it would have hurt them really badly.

Apple’s widest moat has been its integration unlike its competitors, for example you have Windows operating, Intel Silicon and Dell hardware – the Wintel systems for the mass market competing on price. Or the Samsung phones with the Android operating system. Apple’s was always designed to be one seamless product from scratch and that’s how they got their premium pricing and loyal customers. 

They continue to emphasize integration and privacy with AI, a big plus.

I think overall, this will help and Apple is going add on features with each new iPhone or Mac version and increase sales, which were stalling for the past three years.

For a lot of people, yes may be underwhelming and just catching up for the regular Apple user, it would be a convincing argument to at least stay with Apple and possibly upgrade.

A core holding: I’ve bought and held Apple for several years now, and usually buy on declines, the last buy call I had made was around $170, and will add if there are unusual or large dips, this will remain a core holding for at least another 5 years. Apple is not a big mover but I’m very, very confident of at least 10-12% a year, plus it works well as a defensive stock too in bad times.

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Cloud Service Providers

Microsoft (NASDAQ) Q2 Earnings Preview: AI Growth and Cloud Performance in Focus

Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) is scheduled to report its second-quarter results on Tuesday, January 30th, after market close, kicking off tech earnings.
Analysts expect a year-over-year increase in both the top and bottom lines, with earnings per share of $2.77 on revenues of $61.13 billion.

The Redmond, Washington-based company recently became the second tech giant, after Apple (AAPL), to cross the $3 trillion mark, buoyed by its artificial intelligence products. Its shares have surged nearly 63% in the last 12-months.

Microsoft (MSFT) has poured billions of dollars into OpenAI, making it the startup’s largest investor. This has let it get ahead of rivals Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL), Amazon.com (AMZN), and Meta Platforms (META) in the AI race.

The technology underlying OpenAI’s ChatGPT has become entwined in Microsoft (MSFT) products.

The Windows maker recently expanded access to its generative AI offering Copilot. The subscription plan is now offered to individuals and small businesses.

Copilot, which Microsoft (MSFT) dubs as an “everyday AI companion,” is intended to assist writers, programmers, creators, and designers.

According to investment firm Citi, a 5% adoption rate by its 77M customers using Microsoft 365 could add $925 million in revenue by fiscal year 2025. An adoption rate of 15% could add $2.7 billion in sales.

Analysts at Wedbush believe Microsoft (MSFT) will be the most important earnings report and conference call in all of earnings season.

The company is expected to handily beat expectations for the December quarter. Investors will be focusing on the Azure growth metric and the performance of its cloud business.

While AI be a dominant theme in 2024, analysts are of the opinion that 2025 will be the true inflection year.

Last week, Microsoft (MSFT) announced it was laying off 1,900 employees at its gaming division, primarily impacting employees at Activision Blizzard and Xbox.

Over the last three months, the company’s estimates have seen substantial upgrades. Its earnings per share estimates have been revised upwards seven times vs. one downward move, while revenue estimates have seen seven upward moves, compared to two downward revisions.

Seeking Alpha analysts at large consider MSFT a Buy. This compares with average Wall Street rating of Strong Buy and SA Quant rating of Hold.