Fountainheadinvesting

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Cybersecurity Semiconductors

Strategic 2024 Investment Opportunities in Cybersecurity, Technology, and Semiconductors

Here are ETFs that mirror the growing Semiconductor, Cybersecurity and Technology sectors, they have 4 to 5 Star ratings from Morningstar and have done exceedingly well this past year – over 40%. Which is a great performance but a drag going forward, because we’re entering at fairly high levels and very little chance of those gains. Nonetheless these have performed in the mid to high teens per year over a five year period and some have over a ten year – basically the underlying stocks are strong so in the long run, as we can see from their consistent performance.

Most Important: Spread your buying out in installments, on declines, anything we’re buying in 2024 is priced above their mean so we want as much of a bargain as possible.

Cybersecurity

CIBR – cybersecurity, mostly large cybersecurity companies, has the biggest names like PANW, CRWD, OKTA, FTNT etc, a good proxy for cyber security, 

HACK – also cybersecurity, some small companies, but it has companies that specialize in military grade products, which is a bit of an advantage.

Technology

VGT – VGT is part of the Vanguard family, very well regarded and has all the biggest names in tech, half of the M-7, several cybersecurity companies, huge returns –  even the 10 year return is like 18%, going forward if big tech performs this fund do very well. But given how well it’s done again don’t expect too much, anything in the 10-12% range per year for the next 5 should be good.

Semiconductor

SOXX – Largest semiconductor ETF also very successful, having Nvidia as a large holding will do that, but there are several semiconductor companies that haven’t done as well, which can be a drag. But that is common for a sector or any mutual fund or ETF, there will be mediocre and weaker companies, but they also tend to be less volatile, it’s not all bad.

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Market Outlook

Patience in the Market: Accumulating Quality Stocks Amid Volatility

The main strategy is patience to get more margin of safety, especially when a solid company like Adobe gets clobbered 20% for a slightly lower than expected guidance. With a higher 10 year yield of 4.30, long duration tech stories always face more resistance, even more than the overall market. And there’s the volatility as you mentioned. By one measure, trading in options has surpassed that in the stock market for the first time since 2021, according to Goldman Sachs. 

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-03-15-2024/card/frenzy-over-ai-and-nvidia-turbocharges-the-options-market-PijdBZpnDW4BfwZMerfM

I don’t see this froth, volatility and overpricing dissipating; Algo trading, ODTE, (one day expiry options) are pretty much a regular part of the markets now. For us the best strategy is to be patient with limits and accumulate in tranches, even if we miss some opportunities. The goal is a 3-5 year investment and we’re not timing or trading in the market so we’ll have to ride through the rough patches, with confidence in the fundamentals.