Top tier gene editing company, therefore High Risk, High Reward. I think the best bet for Intellia would be a takeover from the bigger pharma/biotech companies.
STRENGTHS
Strong pipeline of in vivo and ex vivo CRISPR-based therapies for life-threatening diseases with high unmet need. Their In vivo therapy is more advanced.
CRISPR gene editing is a leading therapy and likely to succeed. Intellia has a collaboration with Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, which is a stronger Bio Tech company.
Good cash balance to fund operating plans into late 2026.
With nice liquidity and three cutting edge clinical programs in or near pivotal stage, Intellia has garnered a nice following. Wall Street Analysts are excited about its prospects, however sizable revenue starts only in 2026, 2027.
RISKS
FDA has only approved one ex vivo CRISPR/Cas9 therapeutic for human use and none in vivo.
Even after approval the commercial viability is still to be proven and also importantly profitable, even if it takes time – Wall Street estimates call for sizable revenue in 2026-2027.
There have been several failures including the giant Gilead’s after FDA approval.
BeiGene (BGNE) $164
Chinese biotech giant with $3.24Bn estimated sales in 2024. Also, High Risk / High Reward.
BeiGene is a much larger company with an anti-cancer blockbuster, Zanubrutinib. By the end of 2023, it had been approved in more than 65 markets, although U.S. demand remains dominant with annual sales there rising nearly 143% to $946 million.
Zanubrutinib contributes nearly 62% of BeiGene’s overall product revenue. It was the first China-developed innovative drug to gain approval in the United States, initially to treat a type of lymphoma. The the company’s investment in R&D, the biggest in China’s pharmaceutical sector, has brought another star product to market, the injectable drug Tislelizumab. The drug, which boosts the body’s immune defenses against cancer cells, has just been launched in Europe. It brought in $537 million in 2023, a year-on-year rise of almost 27%, although sales notably fell 12.5% in the fourth quarter to $128 million from the same period a year earlier.
This is a matter of prestige for the Chinese government and businesses, I suspect that the government will not hesitate to pump in more cash since biotech needs a vast amount of capital.
Weaknesses and Risks
- Still Losing money: Having proved its ability to develop novel drugs, BeiGene now needs to show it can come up with multiple blockbusters that will finally deliver profits for shareholders. The earliest estimate of profits is 2027 – chances are the stock could remain a show me story, till then or not get a better multiple / rating.
- In the cash-hungry biotech business, even a blockbuster drug with annual sales of more than $1 billion may not be enough to cure an excess of red ink. Besides, BeiGene now has 17 commercial products and a pipeline of more than 50 candidate drugs, which are gobbling up cash for R&D, promotional activities and sales.
It’s a bit of a double edged sword – the Chinese government is likely to continue support without regard to profits, but on the other hand the markets are less likely to support a continuously loss making company.