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Cybersecurity Semiconductors

Strategic 2024 Investment Opportunities in Cybersecurity, Technology, and Semiconductors

Here are ETFs that mirror the growing Semiconductor, Cybersecurity and Technology sectors, they have 4 to 5 Star ratings from Morningstar and have done exceedingly well this past year – over 40%. Which is a great performance but a drag going forward, because we’re entering at fairly high levels and very little chance of those gains. Nonetheless these have performed in the mid to high teens per year over a five year period and some have over a ten year – basically the underlying stocks are strong so in the long run, as we can see from their consistent performance.

Most Important: Spread your buying out in installments, on declines, anything we’re buying in 2024 is priced above their mean so we want as much of a bargain as possible.

Cybersecurity

CIBR – cybersecurity, mostly large cybersecurity companies, has the biggest names like PANW, CRWD, OKTA, FTNT etc, a good proxy for cyber security, 

HACK – also cybersecurity, some small companies, but it has companies that specialize in military grade products, which is a bit of an advantage.

Technology

VGT – VGT is part of the Vanguard family, very well regarded and has all the biggest names in tech, half of the M-7, several cybersecurity companies, huge returns –  even the 10 year return is like 18%, going forward if big tech performs this fund do very well. But given how well it’s done again don’t expect too much, anything in the 10-12% range per year for the next 5 should be good.

Semiconductor

SOXX – Largest semiconductor ETF also very successful, having Nvidia as a large holding will do that, but there are several semiconductor companies that haven’t done as well, which can be a drag. But that is common for a sector or any mutual fund or ETF, there will be mediocre and weaker companies, but they also tend to be less volatile, it’s not all bad.

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Cybersecurity

Fortinet (FTNT) at $74: HOLD as Price Target Met, 10% Post-Earnings Pop Overdone

The long term story remains intact – it is currently fully priced to add more.

Fortinet released Q4-23, earnings after market yesterday.

While the results and guidance were good and met expectations, the 10% pop from $67 yesterday is overdone. In the previous quarter, Fortinet under performed and the stock was pummeled 25% – last evening’s reaction was more of a sigh of relief that results met expectations. As you can see below, there’s nothing extraordinary.

  • Q4-23
  • Revenue of $1.42B (+10.9% Y/Y) beats by $10M.
  • Billings1: Total billings were $1.86 billion for the fourth quarter of 2023, an increase of 8.5% compared to $1.72 billion for the same quarter of 2022.
  • For Q1-2024  Everything is in line with expectations and forecasted analysts estimates.
  • Revenue $1.300 billion to $1.360 billion vs $1.38B consensus – In line.
  • Billings in the range of $1.390 billion to $1.450 billion
  • Non-GAAP gross margin in the range of 76.5% to 77.5% – In line
  • Non-GAAP operating margin in the range of 25.5% to 26.5% – In line
  • For 2024, Fortinet : These are also in line with previous guidance and forecasts.
  • Revenue $5.715 billion to $5.815 billion vs $5.94B consensus – Just over 10% growth.
  • Service revenue in the range of $3.920 billion to $3.970 billion
  • Billings in the range of $6.400 billion to $6.600 billion
  • Non-GAAP gross margin in the range of 76.0% to 78.0%
  • Non-GAAP operating margin in the range of 25.5% to 27.5%
  • Service Revenue growth was impressive and the highlight of the quarter. Service revenue was $927.0 million for the fourth quarter of 2023, an increase of 24.8% compared to $742.9 million YoY.