Fountainheadinvesting

Fountainhead Investing

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Market Outlook

Economic Update: April Core PCE Price Index and Personal Income

April Core PCE Price Index: In line with estimates.

  •  +0.2% M/M vs. +0.2% consensus and +0.3% in March. +2.8% Y/Y vs. +2.8% consensus and +2.8% prior.
  • PCE Price Index: +0.3% M/M vs. +0.3% expected and +0.3% prior. +2.7% Y/Y vs. +2.7% consensus and +2.7% in March.
  • Personal outlays: +0.2% M/M vs. +0.3% consensus and +0.8% prior.
  • Personal income: +0.3% M/M vs. +0.3% consensus and +0.5%.

Futures are up slightly by 0.3% and Treasury yields are lower at 4.53%

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Fintech

Note On Pagaya (PGY)

Pagaya is offering 7.5Mn shares +1.125M optional, via a secondary public offering at $12.70. The dilution to existing shareholders is about 15%. They had reserved this as a shelf offering and it was always part of their disclosures, so we were always aware of dilution risk. However, the timing of this secondary offering, diluting shareholders so close to the share reverse split is a head scratcher. They’re putting the money to good use as business execution continues well, but the timing leaves a bit of a sour taste…

No change in strategy, holding for the long term.