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Inflation Cools: June CPI Drops, Core Rate Eases to 3.3% Year-over-Year

CPI continues to cool in June, with core Y/Y rate easing to +3.3%

  • June Consumer Price Index: -0.1% M/M vs. +0.1% expected and 0.0% in May.
  • +3.0% Y/Y vs. +3.1% expected and +3.3% prior.
  • Core CPI (excludes food and energy): +0.1% M/M vs. +0.2% expected and +0.2% prior.
  • +3.3% Y/Y vs. 3.5% expected and +3.4% prior.

The 10-year yield has dropped to 4.27% and S&P 500 futures are up 0.3%.

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Market Outlook

Title: PCE for May 2024

Headline, core PCE inflation ease in May, as expected

Headline – May PCE Price Index: +0.0% M/M vs. +0.0% consensus and +0.3% in April.

+2.6% Y/Y vs. +2.6% expected and +2.7% prior.

Core – PCE Price Index: +0.1% vs. +0.1% expected and +0.3% prior (revised from +0.2%).

+2.6% Y/Y vs. +2.6% expected and +2.8% prior.

10-year treasury yield lower at 4.276%

S&P 500 Futures up 0.4%

Breadth in the market was better the past few days, hopefully with these inflation numbers the broader rally should continue.

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Market Outlook

May’s CPI cools more than expected, with core CPI rising 3.4% Y/Y

  • May Consumer Price Index: 0.0% vs. +0.1% expected and +0.3% in April.
  • +3.3% Y/Y vs. +3.4% expected and +3.4% prior.
  • Core CPI: +0.2% vs. +0.3% expected and +0.3% prior.
  • +3.4% Y/Y vs. +3.5% expected and +3.6% in April.

These are better than expected numbers and Futures are up 0.7% and the 10 year treasury is down 14 basis points to 4.3%

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Market Outlook

CPI inflation stays hot in March

CPI inflation stays hot in March

  • March Consumer Price Index: +0.4% vs. +0.3% expected and +0.4% prior.
  • +3.5% Y/Y vs. +3.5% expected and +3.2% prior.
  • Core CPI: +0.4% vs. +0.3% expected and +0.4% prior.
  • +3.8% Y/Y vs. +3.7% expected and +3.8% prior.
  • That translates to a 3.8% increase over the past 12 months, topping the 3.7% increase expected and keeping the same pace as in February, the U.S. Department of Labor said.
  • Shelter and gas combined contributed over half of the overall monthly increase.
  • Treasury 10-year yields rose 10 basis points to around 4.45%, 

The S&P 500 Futures are down 1.45%