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Tag: #EconomicIndicators

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Market Outlook

July PCE Inline

Happy 4th of July with American flags on a blue defocused background.

Inflation monthly report for July as expected, YoY gain slightly better.

  • July Core PCE Price Index: +0.2% M/M vs. +0.2% consensus and +0.2% prior.
  • +2.6% Y/Y vs. +2.7% consensus and +2.6% prior.
  • PCE Price Index: +0.2% M/M vs. +0.2% consensus and +0.1% prior.
  • +2.5% Y/Y vs. +2.5% consensus and +2.5% prior.
  • Personal income: +0.3% M/M vs. +0.2% consensus and +0.2% prior.
  • Personal outlays: +0.5% M/M vs. +0.5% consensus and +0.3% prior.
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Market Outlook

February CPI: Slightly Higher Inflation, Markets Remain Unfazed

February CPI (Consumer Price Index)

No major surprises, slightly higher than expected, the markets have mostly shrugged it off, the futures are still 0.5 to 0.6% higher, and the 10 year is also holding steady at 4.10.

  • The Consumer Price Index advanced 0.4% in February, matching the 0.4% increase expected and slightly accelerating from the 0.3% rise in January (unrevised).
  • On a Y/Y basis, the measure rose 3.2%, more than the 3.1% pace expected and +3.1% in the prior month.
  • Excluding food and energy, core CPI increased 0.4% vs. +0.3% consensus and +0.4% prior. Y/Y, core inflation gained 3.8% vs. +3.7% expected and +3.9% prior.

A 2.3% increase in energy costs helped boost the headline inflation number. Food costs were flat on the month, while shelter rose another 0.4%.

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Market Outlook

February Jobs Report: Strong Gains Amidst Rising Unemployment and Wage Growth Slowdown

source

I have been taking profits in good companies and selling some weak ones in the past two weeks to a month, and am repeating some of those trades as a reminder, 5% sales of Nvidia, 50% sales of Tesla, 100% Bumble, another 5% of SuperMicro in addition to the earlier sales.

I’ve barely deployed that cash because I haven’t found compelling bargains. I’ve done some dip buying in Novo and Dell, but I still have a long way to go before I complete them – waiting for more attractive prices.

There is fatigue, and exhaustion after the fantastic earnings season and giddy highs from the AI Fear of Missing Out, (FOMO) trades. Apple, Google, and Tesla, three bellwethers’ weaknesses are also weighing in the market. There is sector rotation out of tech, which is a good thing.

It’s time to be even more selective and patient.