GDP Q1- 2024
Q1 U.S. gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.6%, falling short of the +2.3 % consensus and slowing from the robust +3.4% in Q4 2023.
Q1 personal consumption expenditures growth also cooled some, rising 2.5% vs. +2.8% consensus and +3.3% prior.
The weaker manufacturing sector is a much smaller part of the economy than services. Manufacturing PMI seems to suggest that economic growth and inflation are not as strong as feared – especially if payroll declines are true to this estimate at least. This is not a major surprise, but the weakness in the service index shows that services is seeing a spillover. This should be watched carefully.
The markets have reacted positively, following yesterday’s bounce back – up ¾ to 1%. (Bad news is good news!)
Tesla reports today, likely to be bad but may be discounted.
Meta reports tomorrow after the market, I’ll put up the preview numbers.
Microsoft and Google report on Thursday.
To round off the week we have the PCE number on Friday, which should give us a better idea of inflation – that is the Fed’s preferred gauge.