Data Streaming – Fountainheadinvesting

Confluent (CFLT) the stock popped 25% to $30 on great results and guidance.

My last few recommendations in the past two weeks, when the price was $24, was to buy up to $26, with a 1-year target of $28, with a return potential of over 25% in the next 3-5 years.

Wouldn’t advise trying to jump in over $30, there was a short interest of 11% yesterday, so that contributed a ton to the post-earnings pop, but given the performance, I will buy on declines – I still see annual gains over 20% from here – some of the gains have been pulled forward with this jump.

Here are my forward estimates:

3 Year Revenue growth expected 27% – Current P/S 9, drops to 5.6 by 2026,

3-Year Adjusted Earnings growth expected – Management has guided to adjusted operating break even in 2024, and post-2024, I expect at least 35% to 40% operating profit growth (analysts’ estimates are even higher).

Summary of 2023 earnings

Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.09 beats by $0.04.

Revenue of $213M (+26.0% Y/Y) beats by $7.72M.

Fourth quarter subscription revenue of $203 million, up 31% year over year; fiscal year 2023 subscription revenue of $729 million, up 36% year over year
Fourth quarter Confluent Cloud revenue of $100 million, up 46% year over year; fiscal year 2023 Confluent Cloud revenue of $349 million, up 65% year over year
Confluent Crowd is their big growth catalyst
1,229 customers with $100,000 or greater in ARR, up 21% year over year
Q1- 2024, Confluent guidance:
Total revenue between $211 million and $212 million VS $210.54M consensus
Subscription revenue between $199 million to $200 million
Non-GAAP operating margin of approximately negative 4%
Non-GAAP net income per diluted share between $0.00 to $0.02 vs $0.02 consensus
Fiscal year 2024, Confluent guidance:
Total revenue of approximately $950 million $935.29M consensus;
Non-GAAP operating margin of approximately 0%
Non-GAAP net income per diluted share of approximately $0.17 vs $0.17 Consensus

Confluent (CFLT) Buy $22.25 Industry: Data Streaming

Secular Growth – 3 years, Target $43-45. Annual Gain 24%

Open-source Apache Kafka is ubiquitously used for data streaming. Confluent’s founders originally built Kafka and its wheelhouse is scalable data streaming and infrastructure management. The demand for real-time, low-latency data streams from IoT, Ad-Tech, and Autos to name a few, is only going to get greater and Confluent has the best cloud platform to constantly stream it at scale, enhance, maintain, and provide analytics for it.

What makes Confluent stand out?

Best in Class Product: Confluent does have large competitors; Amazon’s (AMZN) AWS, Microsoft’s (MSFT) Azure, and Alphabet’s (GOOG) Google Cloud have their own managed data streaming products. However, none have the focus, scale, rich features, implementation, integration, support, and cost savings that Confluent does. A Comparison of the products revealed 26 integrations for Confluent Versus 9 and 10 for the rest, much wider deployment, and stronger support and training.

Symbiotic Relationship: Besides, Confluent, having an agnostic platform, has partnerships with the CSPs (Cloud Service Providers) to fill in their data streaming product needs or bring them customers for storage and processing. So, it’s a symbiotic relationship and helps both the CSP and Confluent.

Integration: Confluent’s Data Streaming Platform has several integrated components that will lead to greater engagement and monetization. Given the massive $60Bn Total Addressable Market, and the speed at which data streaming is moving, a comprehensive best-in-class platform at scale is a necessity, and building it gives them a big competitive advantage.

Several Monetization Streams: With Kafka as the foundation, the DSP does a lot more than just stream data, it uses 5 integrated processes of streaming, connecting, governing, processing, and sharing. All these components, including the non-Kafka ones, can be monetized and Confluent has started Freemium licensing/subscriptions to increase engagement and revenue. Using Apache Flink, it’s also increasing engagement and monetization for stream processing, governance, and sharing from customers like Netflix (NFLX) and Instacart (CART). The stream-sharing offering would be very valuable to the finance, insurance, and travel insurance industries, which need to share data with providers and customers.

Confluent had a slower-than-expected 3rd q-2023 revenue growth and in a day sank from $28 to $17, so it is volatile. Now, at $22, it’s a lot cheaper at 8.5x sales, and with 26% revenue growth on the anvil is reasonable for a startup, growth stock that started only in 2014 and IPO’d in 2021. While still making heavy losses, there has been significant improvement in margins and management has committed to continue doing so.