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Cybersecurity Semiconductors

Strategic 2024 Investment Opportunities in Cybersecurity, Technology, and Semiconductors

Here are ETFs that mirror the growing Semiconductor, Cybersecurity and Technology sectors, they have 4 to 5 Star ratings from Morningstar and have done exceedingly well this past year – over 40%. Which is a great performance but a drag going forward, because we’re entering at fairly high levels and very little chance of those gains. Nonetheless these have performed in the mid to high teens per year over a five year period and some have over a ten year – basically the underlying stocks are strong so in the long run, as we can see from their consistent performance.

Most Important: Spread your buying out in installments, on declines, anything we’re buying in 2024 is priced above their mean so we want as much of a bargain as possible.

Cybersecurity

CIBR – cybersecurity, mostly large cybersecurity companies, has the biggest names like PANW, CRWD, OKTA, FTNT etc, a good proxy for cyber security, 

HACK – also cybersecurity, some small companies, but it has companies that specialize in military grade products, which is a bit of an advantage.

Technology

VGT – VGT is part of the Vanguard family, very well regarded and has all the biggest names in tech, half of the M-7, several cybersecurity companies, huge returns –  even the 10 year return is like 18%, going forward if big tech performs this fund do very well. But given how well it’s done again don’t expect too much, anything in the 10-12% range per year for the next 5 should be good.

Semiconductor

SOXX – Largest semiconductor ETF also very successful, having Nvidia as a large holding will do that, but there are several semiconductor companies that haven’t done as well, which can be a drag. But that is common for a sector or any mutual fund or ETF, there will be mediocre and weaker companies, but they also tend to be less volatile, it’s not all bad.

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Cybersecurity

Fortinet (FTNT) at $74: HOLD as Price Target Met, 10% Post-Earnings Pop Overdone

The long term story remains intact – it is currently fully priced to add more.

Fortinet released Q4-23, earnings after market yesterday.

While the results and guidance were good and met expectations, the 10% pop from $67 yesterday is overdone. In the previous quarter, Fortinet under performed and the stock was pummeled 25% – last evening’s reaction was more of a sigh of relief that results met expectations. As you can see below, there’s nothing extraordinary.

  • Q4-23
  • Revenue of $1.42B (+10.9% Y/Y) beats by $10M.
  • Billings1: Total billings were $1.86 billion for the fourth quarter of 2023, an increase of 8.5% compared to $1.72 billion for the same quarter of 2022.
  • For Q1-2024  Everything is in line with expectations and forecasted analysts estimates.
  • Revenue $1.300 billion to $1.360 billion vs $1.38B consensus – In line.
  • Billings in the range of $1.390 billion to $1.450 billion
  • Non-GAAP gross margin in the range of 76.5% to 77.5% – In line
  • Non-GAAP operating margin in the range of 25.5% to 26.5% – In line
  • For 2024, Fortinet : These are also in line with previous guidance and forecasts.
  • Revenue $5.715 billion to $5.815 billion vs $5.94B consensus – Just over 10% growth.
  • Service revenue in the range of $3.920 billion to $3.970 billion
  • Billings in the range of $6.400 billion to $6.600 billion
  • Non-GAAP gross margin in the range of 76.0% to 78.0%
  • Non-GAAP operating margin in the range of 25.5% to 27.5%
  • Service Revenue growth was impressive and the highlight of the quarter. Service revenue was $927.0 million for the fourth quarter of 2023, an increase of 24.8% compared to $742.9 million YoY.
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Cybersecurity

Cybersecurity Sector Outlook for 2024: Strong Buy Recommendations for Key Players

Morgan too recommends cybersecurity as an important sector for 2024. 

I had made buy recommendations for FTNT and PANW in the last few days and Morgan’s price targets of $77 and $375 are very similar to mine, indicating there is still considerable upside left. 

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4053959-palo-alto-on-top-at-morgan-stanley-world-preps-for-cyberattacks

Of the others in the article. I like these stories.

Crowdstrike – CRWD $280 – The best player in endpoint security, first recommended in Sep 2023 at a price of $165. Given the run up, I was hesitant to add more or recommend at this price. 

It’s growing at 33%, as fast as Sentinel One, (S) which is 1/4 its size, so clearly the growth momentum is still there. Wells Fargo has a $315 Price Target, and longer term the TAM (Total Addressable Market) is massive and growing over 25% per year.

It has gone up around $40 (16%)  from the beginning of the year, Buy on Declines.

Sentinel One (S) Cyber Security, $24, BUY Price Target – $30. 

Long term Over 20%. Small Company, Volatile

Sentinel is one the fastest growers in cyber security with 100% growth last year,  and expected growth of 35  to 40 % for the next three years. Sentinel’s valuation should grow on its transition to profitability and free cash flow generation – there have significant improvements in margins. For now, one needs to be prepared for the volatility that comes with just $800Mn revenue and a $7Bn market cap. Given the depth of its products and scope for improvements this is worth investing in.

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Cybersecurity

Fortinet: A Strong Buy in the Cybersecurity Sector

Fortinet: (FTNT) Cybersecurity $61-$61.50 BUY, One year target $75. Long Term 20% return 3-4 years. 

Market leader in the growing cybersecurity industry, increasing revenues at 19% and earnings at 22%, which makes it a good bargain at 34x forward earnings and 7x forward sales. Besides, it is GAAP profitable with terrific operating margins, which always carries a premium.

Cybersecurity is a growing industry due to increasing AI advancements and vulnerability to threats, with several tailwinds. Fortinet has already recovered its 25% second-quarter, post-earnings price drop due to lower revenue growth guidance, which was mostly due to indigestion from heady pandemic growth. It should resume high growth after a few quarters.