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Networking Stocks

Arista Networks Beats and Guides Above Expectations (ANET) $345 

Arista Networks (NYSE:ANET) on Tuesday announced a Q2 top – and bottom-line beat, while issuing current quarter revenue guidance that was largely above expectations. 

Arista’s two biggest clients are Microsoft and Meta for datacenter (over 35% of revenue) – now you know where Microsoft’s Capex went yesterday. 

EPS – $2.10 per share V $1.94 expected on an adjusted basis for Q2 on revenue of $1.69B V $1.65B expected.  

The EPS increase is 33% YoY because of strong revenue and better margins.  For the June quarter Arista’s operating margin was 41% and cash flow margin was 59%! Microsoft and Meta are supposed to be strong bargaining giants, right? Doesn’t look like it. 

Guidance is also higher – For Q3, Arista (ANET) sees revenue of $1.72B to $1.75B. V consensus revenue estimate of $1.72B. The Street has been raising long term estimates as well since morning. 

Arista’s (ANET) has been eating Cisco’s lunch for several years now, no easy task beating a giant,  working as partners with hyperscalers for AI. Ms Ullal, as many of you from Silicon Valley would know is absolutely top notch in executing projects of these large sizes and importance.  

“The collective nature of AI training models relies on a lossless, highly available network to seamlessly connect every GPU in the cluster to one another and enable peak performance. Networks also connect trained AI models to end users and other systems in the data center such as storage, allowing the system to become more than the sum of its parts,” Arista (ANET) top boss Jayshree Ullal said in a blog post in May. 

“As a result, data centers are evolving into new AI Centers where the networks become the epicenter of AI management,” Ullal added. 

Holding on to the 80% I have left of my ANET for the long term. This company is a winner. I would have loved to add more, hesitating only because even with the new estimates for 2026 earnings at $11 a share at 35x earnings (In 2025-2026, growth slows to mid-twenties) valued it at $385 in two years. 

More optimistic projections are for $12 EPS x 40 = $480 about 40% higher so that’s more interesting. Maybe I’m being conservative, but it would be very difficult to keep up these high margins and then there’s the customer concentration risk. 

Categories
AI Industrials Stocks

Microsoft Disappoints Markets 

Microsoft (MSFT) shares fell nearly 7% in extended hours trading on Tuesday after the tech giant reported fiscal fourth-quarter results that topped expectations, but Azure growth was weaker-than-expected or simply the expectations were too high. 

For the period ending June 30, Microsoft earned $2.95 per share – above $2.93 guidance as revenue rose 15% year-over-year to come in at $64.7B – above 64.52 guidance 

Included in that was $28.52B from its Intelligent Cloud division, which consists of its Azure cloud unit. Microsoft said Azure revenue grew 29% year-over-year and 30% in constant currency. 

The company previously said it expected Azure to grow between 30% and 31% in constant currency, and some analysts previously said they expected more than 30% growth. 

Guidance for the Sep quarter will come in with the call. 

Categories
Semiconductors

Teradyne’s Weak 2024 Outlook Sparks Concerns, While Advantest Surges Ahead

Teradyne’s guidance was a big disappointment – they’re forecasting zero growth for 2024, mainly because the first two quarters will be lower but growth will pick up in Q3, Q4. Consensus estimates were for 10% growth in 2024.

Even as end clients like Cloud Service Providers and hyperscalers have bought more semiconductors in the last 6 months, capacity utilization of Teradyne’s testing equipment is still low and new buying of equipment will not be triggered till capacity is used up. This isn’t always a linear relationship, and often there are lags. Second – mobile and PC’s markets have also not increased demand and Teradyne will not get visibility till April for mobile phones demand (read Apple via TSM, which is their largest customer).

Management believes that there is little downside left, and they see utilization rates improving and unit growth in PC’s and smartphones could be a tailwind in the second half. They are still maintaining 2026 estimates of $4.3Mn and over $6 in EPS, but they have a lot of catching up to do.

Contrast this with closest competitor, Advantest (ATEYY), which surprised this morning and increased guidance by 2-3% for the next quarter.. They’re expecting a great second half as well.

I have more Advantest than Teradyne and it’s also done much better for me. If things don’t improve at Teradyne I may just focus on Advantest.