It’s a cyclical business with long term revenue growth now expected to be 6-7% but given better operating efficiency earnings should increase about 12%. That said this is a low margin high cost/high volume business, operating margins are only 8%.
2023 was a weak year, revenue dropped 12%, the first in 9 years. Management has cautioned weakness for 2024 as well, but business should pick up in 2025
It being a cyclical business, buying the stock cheap is essential to make a decent return on investment, and at $105 the stock is about 30% cheaper than the 52-week high of 154. It is also substantially cheaper than some of its peers like XPO and Heartland.
The good thing about cyclicals is that they outperform from the bottom of the down cycle so if one picks up a stock like Arcbest really, really cheap at $80-$85, it can easily scale back to $150 in 3 years, which means doubling your investment. Given that there is nothing exceptional about the business or the company I would wait for a really cheap price.