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AI Stocks

The Apple AI event (AAPL) $195

Apple started its Developers Conference with its long awaited, long overdue AI development announcements yesterday. 

These were the key points

Emphasis on privacy – Majority usage of AI on device but cloud available as well for more computing power, they would be using their own cloud service instead of Google or Microsoft. Apple will be hosting its own Cloud AI services on its own Apple Silicon servers to counter Microsoft’s cloud AI.

Strategy was integration and not an add on – To show AI integrated into the apps and products you already use—rather than powering a tacked-on perk or stand-alone chatbot. 

Partnering with Sam Altman’s OpenAI – Not developing their own artificial intelligence from scratch, instead partnering with Sam Altman’s AI, but crucially it will be integrated. Using a third party for AI could be a smarter move (cheaper, less Capex, fewer failures) – or simply they were too far behind.

Integration Apple’s strongest differentiation was and remains integrated hardware and software product, “System on chip” – basically Apple created and designed silicon with its own operating system and hardware, it’ll be interesting to see how well it is integrated.

The adoption is companywide and includes iOS 18, iPadOS 18 and MacOS Sequoia, Siri, 

Some new features, and a lot of catching up – – several features are in Google and Samsung. 

Playing Catch Up – Writing tools, Voice transcription, Image generation and Notifications, these all exist, and are now available from Apple Intelligence.

Differentiators

The key differentiator here is that Apple Intelligence will also make it easier to search through our existing data – for example, What’s exciting here is the blending of AI with the photos we’ve already taken, and prioritize our notifications. Like other chatbots, you can now text with Siri. But unlike other chatbots, Siri has access to all your Apple stuff. When all the promised updates arrive, it will be able to see what’s on your screen and work across apps. “Add this address to his contact card.” “Text yesterday’s picnic photos to my mom.” Things like this make total sense to a human but up until now have been out of Siri’s reach. The thing that really elevates Siri is its new friend, ChatGPT. When you ask Siri to do some things it doesn’t know how to—say, come up with dinner ideas based on your recent grocery haul—it asks your permission to check with an integrated version of OpenAI’s bot. However, If Apple can pull off what it showed and convince people that Siri is no longer painfully stupid, it might be a tech miracle. That’s a big if. The company has a decade long history of underwhelming Siri improvements.

If you get a chance watch Joanna Stern’s video in the Wall Street Journal.

https://www.wsj.com/tech/personal-tech/apple-intelligence-ios-18-macos-sequoia-ai-b08bb299?mod=hp_lead_pos7

Apple AI analysis: Impact on the company’s business and stock.

Much needed, frankly regardless of much this helps Apple, if they hadn’t done this it would have hurt them really badly.

Apple’s widest moat has been its integration unlike its competitors, for example you have Windows operating, Intel Silicon and Dell hardware – the Wintel systems for the mass market competing on price. Or the Samsung phones with the Android operating system. Apple’s was always designed to be one seamless product from scratch and that’s how they got their premium pricing and loyal customers. 

They continue to emphasize integration and privacy with AI, a big plus.

I think overall, this will help and Apple is going add on features with each new iPhone or Mac version and increase sales, which were stalling for the past three years.

For a lot of people, yes may be underwhelming and just catching up for the regular Apple user, it would be a convincing argument to at least stay with Apple and possibly upgrade.

A core holding: I’ve bought and held Apple for several years now, and usually buy on declines, the last buy call I had made was around $170, and will add if there are unusual or large dips, this will remain a core holding for at least another 5 years. Apple is not a big mover but I’m very, very confident of at least 10-12% a year, plus it works well as a defensive stock too in bad times.

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Consumer Staples

Apple Stock Analysis: Bernstein Upgrade Signals Potential Turnaround

Apple (AAPL) $174 

Apple had an upgrade from Bernstein this morning after a spate of bad news, notably weaker China sales, and fewer iPhone sign-ups in the US. 

“AAPL has de-rated significantly amid a weak iPhone 15 cycle and fears that Apple’s China business is structurally impaired,” analyst Toni Sacconaghi wrote in a note. “We believe prevailing weakness in China is more cyclical than structural and note that historically Apple’s China business has exhibited much higher volatility than Apple overall, given its very feature-sensitive installed base.” Sacconaghi raised his rating on Apple to Outperform from Market Perform and kept his $195 price target.

While Sacconaghi acknowledges there may be short-term headwinds for Apple, the potential use of generative artificial intelligence features in the next iPhone and tailwinds from the replacement cycle could set up the company “well,” he said. It’s possible the company could top 2025 estimates of $416.9B in revenue and $7.40 in earnings per share, Sacconaghi said.

There are other positive developments.

A possibility of a tie-up with Open AI/Google Gemini for a co-pilot. Apple does have a treasure trove of data, there is no way they haven’t thought about monetizing it with AI. I suspect they are fairly advanced in the process but are as secretive as ever.

Nvidia’s omniverse is to be used with the Vision Pro – to be sure this is not revenue accretive, as the Vision Pro is still likely two years in beta before the product even becomes useful and less of a novelty. It is a step in the right direction for better use cases / commercial or other applications.

Apple steadying out around $167-$170 is a good sign for the rest of the market. They report on Thursday after the market, and while the quarter should be weak, the guidance should be key, along with product announcements or hints for announcements in their June developer conference. I don’t think they should be written off yet.

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Technology

Understanding Apple’s Antitrust Case: Bernstein’s Analysis and Market Implications

Apple (AAPL)

I don’t believe there is any reason to panic, I agree with Bernstein’s reasoning below.

It will take years and the outcome will be limited.

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) was sued by the U.S. Justice Department in a landmark antitrust case amid concerns about monopolization in the smartphone market, something Apple has vehemently denied.

While the case is likely to play out in the judicial system for years, investment firm Bernstein does not believe it will have much of a financial impact on the tech giant.

“While the DoJ’s charges are focused on iPhone, we do not see likely remediation as materially impacting Apple financially or undermining the iPhone franchise: worst case, Apple pays a fine, and loosens restrictions for competition across the iOS platform, which we believe will have limited impact on iPhone user retention or on Services revenues,” analyst Toni Sacconaghi wrote in a note to clients.

Sacconaghi believes any outcome is likely to take some time, likely between three and five years, given historical precedent from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOG) (GOOGL). And while it may not undermine Apple’s iPhone franchise, it could result in competitors having access to Apple’s APIs and ecosystem, level the playing field for future devices and result in some “regulatory overhang” for the stock.

“We think the DoJ creates some regulatory overhang on the stock, but see limited to no impact over the next several years,” Sacconaghi added.

Categories
Technology

Apple, (AAPL), Still A Hold.

Apple, (AAPL) – $170 Hold 

The recent drop, especially today, has been because of weak iPhone sales in China, which fell 24% year-over-year in the first six weeks of 2024, amid rising competition from Chinese rival Huawei Technologies, Counterpoint Research said. There’s a lack of consumer confidence in China, and several attempts to kickstart their economy have not succeeded; If it goes into a deflationary spiral, this problem could continue for a few quarters before bottoming out.

Getting out of the car project was a good idea, even if they wasted a decade and billions of dollars, but that’s no longer a drain, and diverting that to AI development is absolutely necessary, even if it is a little late.

The stock should remain sideways and sluggish for a while, but this is not a trading stock, it’s a long term investment, which doesn’t quite give blockbuster returns but is a steady performer. I’m not planning to sell any and will revisit if it falls further.