Fountainheadinvesting

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Stocks

Palantir and TSMC: Strong Long-Term Investment Opportunities in Data Analytics and Semiconductor Industry

*Palantir: (PLTR) Buy, $16.50  One year target $20.* 

*Invest 5 Years, 18-20% annual return.*

EPS Growth P/E PEG Sales Sales Growth P/S PS/G

0.30 29% 55 1.9 2.2 24% 16 67%

Palantir is a solid performer in the Data Analytics and AI space.

Their government business segment is a massive cash cow and a moat, because of long duration and sticky contracts and switching costs. 

The commercial segment is growing much faster at 50%, and will be its growth engine, with the help of its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP), which  tripled the number of users in the past quarter, with over 300 organizations using the new product in the last 5 months.

The stock is expensive especially after doubling last year but can be bought in installments and declines. I own some with an average cost of $15.

CPI Report: Inflation was slightly higher than expected.

Taiwan Semiconductor  Manufacturing(TSM) Buy, $100  One year target $120. 

Invest 5 Years, 15 % annual return. P/E 20, 3-5 year EPS growth 18-20%.

The Semiconductor foundry (manufacturing) leader by far with about 50% market share has large and deep moats in new processes, scale and costs. The semiconductor industry would collapse without it – it would take years for Global Foundries, Intel, Samsung, et al to even come close to catching up. Consider that TSM is spending up to $40Bn to set up a new foundry in Arizona,  and it’s having trouble finding enough qualified people for its plant. 

Revenue growth of 12-14% and earnings growth of 18-20% for the next three years augur well for the company. Normally TSM would be priced at over 40X earnings and closer to 10x sales, about twice the current price. Unfortunately, it being located in Taiwan and with China’s open design on it – multiples will always stay lower because of these geopolitical tensions. Still, the stock has rewarded investors well in the past with steady appreciation in the mid teens. It’s a must have for the portfolio specially for long term steady growth.

Palantir: (PLTR) Buy, $16.50  One year target $280. 

Invest 5 Years, 16-20% annual return. P/E 34, 3-5 year EPS growth 14-16%.

CPI Report: Inflation was slightly higher than expected.

December Consumer Price Index: +0.3% M/M vs. +0.2% expected and +0.1% prior.

+3.4% Year on Year  vs. 3.2% expected and +3.1% prior month

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy: +0.3% M/M vs. +0.2% expected and +0.3% prior. +3.9% Year on Year vs. 3.8% expected and +4.0% prior.

Stock Futures are flat as is the 10 year Treasury yield at 4.02% 

Categories
Consumer Discretionary Industry Stocks

Make My Trip – Plenty to Like And Some Risks As Well. 

Make My Trip (MMYT) $88 

What’s to like:  

Secular growth in Indian tourism. That’s likely to last several years, less cyclical. 

Market leader with 54% share 

High awareness of brands. 

20% Three Year Forward Rev Growth consensus estimates 

Turned the corner – first year of Operating Profits of $56Mn on $782Mn in revenue or 7% operating profit margins and $125Mn operating cash or 16% cash flow margin. 

Management emphasized profitability from the entire industry, which should curtail some of the undercutting…Online travel booking can be a commodity, so this will help. 

Risks and challenges. 

Cyclicality – From 2015 to to 2018 (March Y/E) Make My Trip grew revenue from $295Mn to $658Mn, then drop 2 years in a row to $475Mn by March 2020 – Pre covid there was a slowdown in travel. Post Covid it has recovered strongly to $792Mn in revenue last year.  

Market returns were commensurate with this performance – the stocks best performance was in the past 12 months returning 183%, the vast majority of the 219% of the last 10 years. Simply, the market has discounted some the 20% growth of the next 3 years. 

Overall revenue growth from 2015-2024 was 10%, more like the industry average, and 20% forward growth will put it in a different league. 

Valuation: 10X sales with 20% growth, it’s not a profit story yet. That’s a P/S growth ratio of 0.5, ideally, I like to get in below 0.3 for a better margin of safety, unless the cash flow or operating profit is growing very strongly. 

It’s a good story, well managed, strong branding, market leadership and lots of growth ahead – valuation is a bit stretched because of secular growth Indian travel story 2X its normal multiple. Buying on declines and averaging it would be better.