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Enterprise Software

nCino: A SaaS Player Focused on Profitability but Facing Valuation Hurdles

source: ncino

nCino Inc (NCNO) $35.75

The stock jumped 15-20% post earnings on an earnings beat and slight revenue miss, from $30 yesterday. Guidance is also decent with 15% revenue growth for 2024.

You could buy around $32 or in installments.

Positives

Focusing on profitability, makes decent cash flow of 15% and adjusted operating of 3-5%, showing an improving trend with good estimates of earnings improving 35% in years 2025-2026. 

They have the leverage to do that, it’s a SaaS business but I would have preferred gross margins in the high 80’s. That must happen over time.

They are selling to higher cohort customers, growth in customers over 100K and $1Mn is much higher than baseline growth.

There is a switching cost competitive advantage, especially when you’re dealing with larger customers, and have more than one offering.

Negatives

Sales cycles are longer given the higher value customer.

Banking and financial services software is very competitive, not much to differentiate from one another.

Price has gotten a little expensive at 6x sales with 15% revenue growth so returns going forward will be muted in comparison.

Given the weaknesses in banks and the financial services sector, I don’t expect multiples to be more rewarding than the market, even though this is a tech company, but focused on one vertical.

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Enterprise Software

GitLab’s Growth: Strategic Partnerships, High-Demand Offerings, and Alphabet’s Investment

To be sure, Alphabet still has a small minority stake in GitLab — although its recent regulatory filing indicates its investment is a “member of 10% group,” meaning that Alphabet’s GV is working with a consortium of investors that collectively have a more-than-10% stake in GitLab.  

Funnel business to Google Cloud, the way GitHib is doing it for Azure.

NVIDIA selected Gitlab Geo to tackle scalability and security issues, enabling their remote teams to operate with greater efficiency and effectiveness. This implementation reduces the duration required for cloning and project management, facilitating smoother operations.

GitLab’s Ultimate tier witnessed remarkable growth in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, with 50% of Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) attributed to this tier.  – Kind of reminding you of Apple’s priciest I-phones getting the most demand.

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Enterprise Software

UiPath (PATH) Earnings Update: Impressive Growth and Profitability Achievements

Earnings update – UiPath (PATH)

Excellent results all around, a lot of growth initiatives from new products and partnerships, the emphasis on execution and profitability was appreciated. The 20% cash flow margin for FY2025 is impressive.They seem to be walking the talk. 

Q4 – FY 2024

  • Non-GAAP EPS of $0.22 beats by $0.06.
  • Revenue of $405.25M (+31.4% Y/Y) beats by $21.56M.
  • Achieves first quarter of GAAP profitability as a public company

Full Year Fiscal 2024 Financial Highlights

  • Revenue of $1.308 billion increased 24 percent year-over-year.
  • Net new ARR of $260 million.
  • GAAP gross margin was 85 percent.
  • Non-GAAP gross margin was 87 percent.
  • GAAP operating loss was $(165) million.
  • Non-GAAP operating income was $233 million.
  • Net cash flow from operations was $299 million.
  • Non-GAAP adjusted free cash flow was $309 million.

2025 Outlook: 

  • Revenue in the range of $1.555 billion to $1.560 billion, better than 1.550 expected.
  • ARR in the range of $1.725 billion to $1.730 billion as of January 31, 2025
  • Non-GAAP operating income of approximately $295 million – 18% margin.
  • Full Year Non-GAAP cash flow should be around 20% of revenues $310Mn
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Enterprise Software

Confluent Stock Pops 25%: Why I’m Buying on Declines Despite the Earnings Surge

source

Confluent (CFLT) the stock popped 25% to $30 on great results and guidance. 

My last few recommendations in the past two weeks, when the price was $24, was to buy up to $26, with a 1-year target of $28, with a return potential of over 25% in the next 3-5 years. 

Wouldn’t advise trying to jump in over $30, there was a short interest of 11% yesterday, so that contributed a ton to the post-earnings pop, but given the performance, I will buy on declines – I still see annual gains over 20% from here – some of the gains have been pulled forward with this jump.

Here are my forward estimates:

3 Year Revenue growth expected 27% – Current P/S 9, drops to 5.6 by 2026, 

3-Year Adjusted Earnings growth expected – Management has guided to adjusted operating break even in 2024, and post-2024, I expect at least 35% to 40% operating profit growth (analysts’ estimates are even higher).

Summary of 2023 earnings 

Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.09 beats by $0.04.

Revenue of $213M (+26.0% Y/Y) beats by $7.72M.

  • Fourth quarter subscription revenue of $203 million, up 31% year over year; fiscal year 2023 subscription revenue of $729 million, up 36% year over year
  • Fourth quarter Confluent Cloud revenue of $100 million, up 46% year over year; fiscal year 2023 Confluent Cloud revenue of $349 million, up 65% year over year
  • Confluent Crowd is their big growth catalyst
  • 1,229 customers with $100,000 or greater in ARR, up 21% year over year
  • Q1- 2024, Confluent guidance:
  • Total revenue between $211 million and $212 million VS $210.54M consensus
  • Subscription revenue between $199 million to $200 million
  • Non-GAAP operating margin of approximately negative 4%
  • Non-GAAP net income per diluted share between $0.00 to $0.02 vs $0.02 consensus
  • Fiscal year 2024, Confluent guidance:
  • Total revenue of approximately $950 million $935.29M consensus;
  • Non-GAAP operating margin of approximately 0%
  • Non-GAAP net income per diluted share of approximately $0.17 vs $0.17 Consensus
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Enterprise Software

UiPath: A Strong Buy in Robotic Process Automation

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UiPath (PATH) Buy $23  Industry: Robotic Automation Processes (RPA)

Secular Growth – 5 Years, Target $55 to $60. Annual Gain around 22%

Why UiPath?

Saving customers money: I believe that for AI to succeed, enterprise software businesses will have to come up with genuine economic and money-saving use cases and applications for their business customers by improving productivity.

Unlocking Data: Mark Moerdler, from Bernstein Research, commented on Barron’s AI Roundtable.

“But arguably, the bigger value creation is going to be unlocking the data within enterprises, to leverage that data to drive efficiencies within organizations, make leaps of intuition in coming up with answers, or make decisions faster, or in some cases reach conclusions you couldn’t previously reach because you didn’t have easy access to the data.” 

UiPath is a Robotic Process Automation (RPA) leader, that started improving productivity for its business customers since its inception and the availability of faster chips and new forms of faster, more efficient parallel computing should turbocharge its business.

Fast-growing industry: The RPA industry is in its early stages and has a long runway of fast growth, especially with AI hardware support. The RPA market is expected to grow at an astounding 33% to $27.5Bn, with cognitive or intelligent computing being one of its key drivers.

UiPath generates enough context to create AI solutions

UiPath’s co-founder had this to say on the earnings call

  • “To be effective, Generative AI needs context, which our software robots can deliver by gathering information from across the enterprise – in data, documents, CRM, ERP, and beyond. It also needs our platform to take action and operationalize the promise of AI today with an integrated set of capabilities that combines our Specialized AI with Generative AI. 
  • Yeah, I would like to add that more customers are realizing that automation is a great means to get more value from Generative AI.”

Strong margins and growth – GAAP margin of 83%,  revenue growth 21% for the next three years, Adjusted operating profit margin at 15%.

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Enterprise Software

Confluent: A Strategic Buy in Data Streaming

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Confluent (CFLT) Buy $22.25 Industry: Data Streaming

Secular Growth – 3 years, Target $43-45. Annual Gain 24%

Open-source Apache Kafka is ubiquitously used for data streaming. Confluent’s founders originally built Kafka and its wheelhouse is scalable data streaming and infrastructure management. The demand for real-time, low-latency data streams from IoT, Ad-Tech, and Autos to name a few, is only going to get greater and Confluent has the best cloud platform to constantly stream it at scale, enhance, maintain, and provide analytics for it. 

What makes Confluent stand out?

Best in Class Product: Confluent does have large competitors; Amazon’s (AMZN) AWS, Microsoft’s (MSFT) Azure, and Alphabet’s (GOOG) Google Cloud have their own managed data streaming products. However, none have the focus, scale, rich features, implementation, integration, support, and cost savings that Confluent does.  A Comparison of the products revealed 26 integrations for Confluent Versus 9 and 10 for the rest, much wider deployment, and stronger support and training.

Symbiotic Relationship: Besides, Confluent, having an agnostic platform, has partnerships with the CSPs (Cloud Service Providers) to fill in their data streaming product needs or bring them customers for storage and processing.  So, it’s a symbiotic relationship and helps both the CSP and Confluent. 

  • Integration: Confluent’s  Data Streaming Platform has several integrated components that will lead to greater engagement and monetization. Given the massive $60Bn Total Addressable Market, and the speed at which data streaming is moving, a comprehensive best-in-class platform at scale is a necessity, and building it gives them a big competitive advantage.

Several Monetization Streams: With Kafka as the foundation, the DSP does a lot more than just stream data, it uses 5 integrated processes of streaming, connecting, governing, processing, and sharing. All these components, including the non-Kafka ones, can be monetized and Confluent has started Freemium licensing/subscriptions to increase engagement and revenue. Using Apache Flink, it’s also increasing engagement and monetization for stream processing, governance, and sharing from customers like Netflix (NFLX) and Instacart (CART). The stream-sharing offering would be very valuable to the finance, insurance, and travel insurance industries, which need to share data with providers and customers.

Confluent had a slower-than-expected 3rd q-2023 revenue growth and in a day sank from $28 to $17, so it is volatile. Now, at $22, it’s a lot cheaper at 8.5x sales, and with 26% revenue growth on the anvil is reasonable for a startup, growth stock that started only in 2014 and IPO’d in 2021. While still making heavy losses, there has been significant improvement in margins and management has committed to continue doing so.

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Enterprise Software

Klaviyo (KYVO): A Promising Buy in Marketing Automation

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Klaviyo (KYVO) Buy – $27.50 

3-5 Years, Target $50 to $60. Annual Gain – 16 to 20%

Secular growth story – 4-year forecasted revenue CAGR of 32% 

Klaviyo (NYSE: KVYO) is a marketing automation Guru with a 10% stake owned by Shopify (SHOP) with an option to purchase an additional 5%.

Within marketing automation, there are the plain vanilla, single-channel solutions like Mail Chimp and Customer Contact, and one 800-pound gorilla Hubspot (HUBS) which is 3 times its size, and four times its valuation. Taking share from single-channel customers, the smaller Klaviyo is growing much faster at 32% than Hubspot’s 23%.

What’s special about Klaviyo – These are the main competitive advantages:

  • Klaviyo’s integrated data platform integrates customer and automated marketing data.
  • A full stack of tools to provide customers with complete marketing solutions. Single-channel solutions lack data analytics and personalized experience capacity, while marketing solution providers have no segmentation or data capabilities and cloud warehouses have all the data but zero messaging infrastructure and campaign flows.
  • Because of the integration, their targeting is much more precise, scalable, and much faster – this is automated at a large scale and machine-driven for smaller customers to self-operate. Other vendors don’t have that capability or have customers’ data stored across different datasets and databases, which are less user-friendly than Klaviyo’s solution. 
  • Its close association with Shopify, which contributed to 77% of Klaviyo’s revenue; Shopify itself is growing at 22% – so this advantage should endure for a while.

The metrics are impressive 

  • High-value customers grew faster, and customers over $50K per year grew 89%, faster than the overall 24% growth for the company.
  • The Net Revenue Run Rate stayed high at 119%, the 10th quarter with an NRR over 115%, 
  • Cash Flow Margin at 15% of sales
  • Sticky – 73% of orders were from repeat customers

Importantly, with the solid operating cash generation Klaviyo doesn’t need to choose between growth and profitability, which is a huge deal for a startup. It has a cash hoard of $724Mn. With the advantage of already having and generating even more data, M/L could likely become its core competency, which should allow it to dominate this space in the decade ahead.

Klaviyo is still under the radar and a steal at $28 a share.