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Category: Consumer Staples

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Consumer Staples Stocks

ZAPP (ZAPP): A Tiny Electric Bike Maker Faces Stiff Competition

ZAPP (ZAPP) $15.25 Speculative – Avoid. 

This is an electric bike maker from Thailand, with a tiny market cap of $37Mn. The company’s debut product, the i300, is a high-performance electric “perfect city bike” with widespread acclaim, including winning the prestigious Red Dot Product Design Award, the German Design Award, the Australian Good Design Award, and other E-Mobility awards. 

The value proposition – Price around only $10,000 lightweight motor, rechargeable and removable battery pack.

Weaknesses and challenges 

Pre revenue, development stage company with a limited operating history as a public company, Product development in new category in this cyclical and volatile sector is notoriously costly, and their planned entrance to the U.S. market will require considerable capital, effort, and time. 

In addition, the sobering fact is that the i300 has been in development for almost six years (admittedly the COVID-19 crisis was a legitimate factor in this delay) and can only be ordered online at the company website at Zapp i300 Urban Electric Scooter/Motorbike | Zapp EV. 

Two competitors at an advanced stage:

Livewire (LWR) – Market cap of $1.7Bn

LVWR has a strong strategic relationship with Harley-Davidson (HOG) which spun off its electric motorcycle division on 9/20/22 as a separate, publicly traded company in a SPAC deal.  LVWR has retail partners in more than a dozen states in the U.S, and sales of only $38Mn, 18% lower than 2022, but is expected to grow 30-40% in the next 3 years.

Niu Technologies (NIU),  with over 400 retail stores in the U.S. through retail partners is another strong competitor with a market cap of $165Mn and revenues of $479Mn with 20% growth prospects.

ZAPP’s lack of experience to produce at scale and shareholder dilution are two other weaknesses.

I suspect that the 15% rise was due to short covering, this was quite heavily shorted. I want to take a close look at the Niu.

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Consumer Staples Stocks

Shopify (SHOP) Plummets 25% Post Earnings: Analyzing Valuation Concerns and Long-Term Growth Potential

Shopify (SHOP) $60 – Big 25% drop post earnings.

Shopify is still on the expensive side at 9x sales with 21% growth, and 63 x earnings with 35% growth. But it’s a lot cheaper after the drop.

What caused the drop, and does it change the long-term growth outlook?

  • Both revenue and earnings beat in small amounts.
  • Guidance was in line if you adjusted for the sale of the logistics business.

The drop was more valuation-related, which was high, and GAAP profitability has over the past year, become a sensitive issue with higher interest rates.

That said, the business is really, really solid – they’ve had two price increases (plus and premium tiers) with little churn from customers.

It does have Shopify has a significant competitive advantage in its dominant segment of SMBs –   in that it is the leader in small-to-medium-sized digital storefront provision of independent sites of access. The quality emphasis does resonate with customers who remain loyal.

I think it is worth accumulating on declines for the longer term- the only caveats being – that multiples are getting compressed and with Shopify’s relative maturity there will be scrutiny towards GAAP profitability, especially since their hyper-growth days are over. All that means that returns will be more sedate, but at this price, the downside is limited, with more upside potential.

Categories
Consumer Staples

Apple Stock Analysis: Bernstein Upgrade Signals Potential Turnaround

Apple (AAPL) $174 

Apple had an upgrade from Bernstein this morning after a spate of bad news, notably weaker China sales, and fewer iPhone sign-ups in the US. 

“AAPL has de-rated significantly amid a weak iPhone 15 cycle and fears that Apple’s China business is structurally impaired,” analyst Toni Sacconaghi wrote in a note. “We believe prevailing weakness in China is more cyclical than structural and note that historically Apple’s China business has exhibited much higher volatility than Apple overall, given its very feature-sensitive installed base.” Sacconaghi raised his rating on Apple to Outperform from Market Perform and kept his $195 price target.

While Sacconaghi acknowledges there may be short-term headwinds for Apple, the potential use of generative artificial intelligence features in the next iPhone and tailwinds from the replacement cycle could set up the company “well,” he said. It’s possible the company could top 2025 estimates of $416.9B in revenue and $7.40 in earnings per share, Sacconaghi said.

There are other positive developments.

A possibility of a tie-up with Open AI/Google Gemini for a co-pilot. Apple does have a treasure trove of data, there is no way they haven’t thought about monetizing it with AI. I suspect they are fairly advanced in the process but are as secretive as ever.

Nvidia’s omniverse is to be used with the Vision Pro – to be sure this is not revenue accretive, as the Vision Pro is still likely two years in beta before the product even becomes useful and less of a novelty. It is a step in the right direction for better use cases / commercial or other applications.

Apple steadying out around $167-$170 is a good sign for the rest of the market. They report on Thursday after the market, and while the quarter should be weak, the guidance should be key, along with product announcements or hints for announcements in their June developer conference. I don’t think they should be written off yet.