Tesla (TSLA) Buy on declines $160-190
I own Tesla and have been holding it patiently.
Tesla has operating margin compression from 16% to 9% and there is no way they can continue to grow without sacrificing margins, otherwise, they get saddled with excess production capacity and inventory – which are equally bad problems. There’s far more competition, Chinese demand is lower, and suddenly you’re looking at it as an auto company with all its associated auto industry problems and a lower multiple.
I guess the main question is how much of it is already in the price – Tesla has dropped 33% from its 52 week high of $300, and rebounding from $182.
Earnings – Priced at 59x with 24% growth, about 10% overpriced.
Sales – 5.5X sales with 18% growth – also overpriced, because it doesn’t have the tech operating margins anymore and even in the best case will go to 15-16% of sales.
That said – it is far ahead in innovation and scale and very likely remain so in spite of the Musk personality and the various chemicals that go with it.